AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 18

Manitoba Moose at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Manitoba Moose
3:5
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

MBTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
2.42.6
High danger
33
Chances
911
Shots
2527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances3
2.37Expected goals2.59

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–133–81–30.7–1.5
2nd11–54–11–01.0–0.4
3rd8–92–21–00.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
2.59
GSAx
-2.41
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.37
GSAx
-0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:40Penalty
  • 1st 6:41Penalty
  • 1st 8:42Kyle Capobianco (0–1)low · 60 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 12:40Kyle Capobianco (0–2)low · 41 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 14:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:02Cameron Hughes (0–3)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 16:33Penalty
  • 1st 17:28Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (1–3)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 18:02Justin Hryckowian (1–4)5v4 · medium · 12 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 5:59Ben King (2–4)low · 41 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 1:11Penalty
  • 3rd 6:20Fabian Wagner (3–4)high · 12 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 19:03Justin Hryckowian (3–5)empty net · medium · 28 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis