Abbotsford Canucks at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

4:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ABBCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.53.1
High danger: 54
Chances: 1311
Shots: 2630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances4

3.46Expected goals3.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	6–2	1–0	1.6–0.6
2nd	8–15	2–6	0–1	0.6–1.6
3rd	7–8	5–3	4–3	1.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:33 of the 3rd	7:27	7:27	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: -0.54

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: +1.17

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 8
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.89
GSAx: +0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:23Penalty
1st 10:29Penalty
1st 11:00Max Sasson (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 16:11Penalty
2nd 16:05Jacob Melanson (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 6:56Penalty
3rd 12:19Linus Karlsson (2–1)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 12:33Danila Klimovich (3–1)high · 13 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 19:16Max Sasson (4–1)empty net · high · 13 ft · beat Nikke Kokko