Colorado Eagles at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Colorado Eagles

3:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

COLTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.43.2
High danger: 27
Chances: 810
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances7

2.41Expected goals3.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	3–2	1–2	0.9–1.1
2nd	13–11	2–4	0–2	0.8–1.2
3rd	7–8	3–4	1–3	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:57	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: +1.21

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: -0.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:14Jayson Megna (1–0)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 10:34Penalty
1st 12:25Cameron Hebig (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 15:17Penalty
1st 18:52Penalty
2nd 3:49Wyatt Aamodt (2–1)low · 67 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 10:29Calle Rosén (3–1)low · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 11:20Penalty
3rd 4:15Penalty
3rd 4:15Penalty
3rd 4:34Penalty
3rd 11:27Penalty
3rd 12:51Penalty
3rd 13:02Sammy Walker (3–2)5v4 · grade A · 26 ft · beat Trent Miner