Charlotte Checkers at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Charlotte Checkers

5:0

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

CLTSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

90%10%

xG: 3.91.3
High danger: 61
Chances: 135
Shots: 4220

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal20

13Scoring chances5

6High-danger chances1

3.93Expected goals1.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	3–3	1–1	0.7–0.8
2nd	15–4	3–0	0–0	1.0–0.1
3rd	17–6	7–2	5–0	2.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 37
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.93
GSAx: -1.07

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 20
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.35
GSAx: +1.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:32Penalty
2nd 1:08Penalty
2nd 7:58Brett Chorske (1–0)low · 49 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 8:32Riley Hughes (2–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 9:31Penalty
2nd 14:06Sandis Vilmanis (3–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 2:19Penalty
3rd 7:06Penalty
3rd 11:24Penalty
3rd 13:18Penalty
3rd 16:15Penalty
3rd 18:03Wilmer Skoog (4–0)high · 15 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 19:39John Leonard (5–0)grade A · 3 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko