Bakersfield Condors at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Bakersfield Condors

8:2

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

BAKHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 3.13.3
High danger: 55
Chances: 1114
Shots: 3634

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal34

11Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances5

3.13Expected goals3.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–8	5–4	1–2	1.4–0.8
2nd	12–13	6–5	4–3	1.3–1.3
3rd	7–13	0–5	0–0	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.35
GSAx: +1.35

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 23
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -3.28

Cameron Whitehead

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 5
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.41
GSAx: -1.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:29Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 10:20Connor Carrick (1–0)low · wrist · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 11:14Kyle Mayhew (2–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 17:26Alex Swetlikoff (3–0)medium · wrist · 11 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 18:40Penalty
2nd 7:00Seth Griffith (4–0)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 10:47Noah Philp (5–0)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 12:07Penalty
2nd 14:41Penalty
2nd 18:00Penalty
2nd 18:00Penalty
2nd 18:00Penalty
2nd 18:00Penalty
2nd 18:00Penalty
2nd 18:56Penalty
2nd 19:30Noah Philp (6–0)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 4:53Robert Hägg (6–1)low · wrist · 60 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 5:30Penalty
3rd 5:41Seth Griffith (7–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 45 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
3rd 7:16Penalty
3rd 8:49Braeden Bowman (7–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 59 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 9:41Penalty
3rd 9:41Penalty
3rd 19:39Noah Philp (8–2)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Cameron Whitehead
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty