AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 19

Colorado Eagles at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Colorado Eagles
4:7
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

COLTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
23%77%
xG
2.54.1
High danger
48
Chances
918
Shots
2739

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal39
9Scoring chances18
4High-danger chances8
2.52Expected goals4.10

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–121–40–10.4–1.2
2nd14–116–33–21.6–0.9
3rd7–162–111–50.5–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL35:27 of the 3rd14:3314:33+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isak Posch
Shots faced
39
Saves
32
Allowed
7
xGA
4.10
GSAx
-2.90
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.53
GSAx
-1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:56Travis Barron (0–1)grade A · rebound · 23 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 1st 6:18Penalty
  • 1st 9:51Hunter Drew (0–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 1st 15:10Egor Sokolov (0–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 1st 19:17Penalty
  • 2nd 1:10Jean-Luc Foudy (1–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 5:35Taylor Makar (2–3)high · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 13:52Cameron Hebig (2–4)high · 14 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 2nd 16:46Jake Wise (3–4)medium · 30 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 19:37Ryan McGregor (3–5)low · 39 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 5:27Cameron Hebig (3–6)high · 18 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 12:55Jere Innala (4–6)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:49Kailer Yamamoto (4–7)empty net · medium · 22 ft · beat Isak Posch