Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

5:2

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

LVWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.83.4
High danger: 78
Chances: 1312
Shots: 3330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances12

7High-danger chances8

3.85Expected goals3.40

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	5–4	3–3	1.5–1.4
2nd	15–11	5–6	2–5	1.5–1.3
3rd	7–9	3–2	2–0	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.39
GSAx: +1.39

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +0.03

Taylor Gauthier

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 5
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.82
GSAx: -1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:22Penalty
1st 8:41Olle Lycksell (1–0)grade A · tip · rebound · 8 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 14:13Penalty
1st 14:13Penalty
1st 19:31Penalty
2nd 3:43Penalty
2nd 3:43Penalty
2nd 5:47Penalty
2nd 8:25Alex Bump (2–0)medium · tip · 20 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 13:46Rodrigo Abols (3–0)grade A · tip · rebound · 11 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 5:51Penalty
3rd 6:47Penalty
3rd 8:17Alex Bump (4–0)5v4 · low · wrist · 48 ft · beat Taylor Gauthier
3rd 9:50Anthony Richard (5–0)low · slap · 22 ft · beat Taylor Gauthier
3rd 15:08Avery Hayes (5–1)low · tip · 8 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 18:51Gabe Klassen (5–2)medium · snap · 15 ft · beat Parker Gahagen