AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, April 23

Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners
3:4
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
2.02.5
High danger
26
Chances
98
Shots
2323

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal23
9Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances6
2.02Expected goals2.51

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–74–31–20.8–0.8
2nd7–102–30–20.5–1.0
3rd8–63–21–20.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
2.51
GSAx
-1.49
Artūrs Šilovs
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.02
GSAx
-0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:06Penalty
  • 1st 5:16Penalty
  • 1st 9:45Tristen Nielsen (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 13:05Penalty
  • 1st 18:22Hunter Drew (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 1st 18:47Penalty
  • 1st 18:47Penalty
  • 2nd 1:47Penalty
  • 2nd 3:42Samuel Blais (1–2)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 4:37Penalty
  • 2nd 10:56Penalty
  • 2nd 14:36Linus Karlsson (1–3)low · 28 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 15:16Penalty
  • 2nd 16:49Samuel Blais (1–4)5v4 · medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 18:05Travis Barron (2–4)4v5 · medium · 11 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 3rd 7:29Artem Duda (3–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
  • 3rd 11:26Penalty