Toronto Marlies at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Toronto Marlies

3:4

Final / OT

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

TORCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 2.34.1
High danger: 28
Chances: 815
Shots: 2835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal35

8Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances8

2.30Expected goals4.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–2	0–2	0.4–0.9
2nd	10–13	3–6	1–2	0.8–1.2
3rd	6–9	3–4	1–2	0.8–1.0
OT	5–6	0–3	0–2	0.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	6:55	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.08
GSAx: +0.08

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: -0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:30Alex Nylander (1–0)low · 46 ft · beat Jet Greaves
1st 7:38Penalty
1st 7:38Penalty
1st 7:48Denton Mateychuk (1–1)grade A · backhand · rebound · 10 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 15:04Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
3rd 4:11Guillaume Richard (1–2)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 7:01Penalty
3rd 8:22Luca Pinelli (1–3)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 15:31Penalty
3rd 16:49Alex Steeves (2–3)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 19:11Alex Steeves (3–3)grade A · 11 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 19:55Penalty
OT 9:42Luca Pinelli (3–4)low · 13 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby