San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Crypto.com Arena · Los Angeles, CA

San Jose Barracuda

2:1

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 1.82.1
High danger: 11
Chances: 56
Shots: 2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances6

1High-danger chances1

1.81Expected goals2.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	2–1	1–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	7–10	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.8
3rd	5–12	1–3	0–0	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	17:42 of the 3rd	2:18	2:18	+0.050 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +1.14

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.81
GSAx: -0.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:58Penalty
1st 7:38Penalty
1st 10:50Penalty
1st 10:50Penalty
1st 11:46Penalty
1st 19:59Penalty
1st 19:59Penalty
2nd 0:20Penalty
2nd 7:40Anthony Vincent (1–0)low · 25 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 8:31Penalty
2nd 16:29Penalty
3rd 6:12Martin Chromiak (1–1)low · 47 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 14:05Penalty
3rd 14:05Penalty
3rd 17:42Collin Graf (2–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Pheonix Copley