AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, April 27

Springfield Thunderbirds at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Springfield Thunderbirds
1:5
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

SPRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
8%92%
xG
1.03.4
High danger
17
Chances
313
Shots
1639

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal39
3Scoring chances13
1High-danger chances7
0.96Expected goals3.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–80–10–00.3–0.5
2nd7–113–31–20.6–0.9
3rd3–200–90–50.1–2.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
39
Saves
34
Allowed
5
xGA
3.43
GSAx
-1.57
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
16
Saves
15
Allowed
1
xGA
0.96
GSAx
-0.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:01Corey Schueneman (1–0)low · 47 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 12:42Penalty
  • 1st 18:17Penalty
  • 2nd 2:30Penalty
  • 2nd 2:38Matthew Poitras (1–1)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 10:38Penalty
  • 2nd 15:30Penalty
  • 2nd 17:43Penalty
  • 2nd 17:43Penalty
  • 3rd 6:25Penalty
  • 3rd 7:41Ian Mitchell (1–2)5v4 · low · 59 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 8:35Riley Tufte (1–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 11:17Penalty
  • 3rd 11:47Penalty
  • 3rd 15:07Riley Tufte (1–4)grade A · 27 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 15:25Penalty
  • 3rd 15:39Matthew Poitras (1–5)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Colten Ellis