Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

3:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

LVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 1.42.1
High danger: 32
Chances: 410
Shots: 1520

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal20

4Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances2

1.43Expected goals2.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–6	0–2	0–1	0.1–0.5
2nd	8–7	2–4	1–0	0.7–0.7
3rd	4–7	2–4	2–1	0.6–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: +1.05

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 12
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.43
GSAx: -1.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:54Penalty
1st 9:20Penalty
1st 9:20Penalty
1st 9:20Penalty
2nd 2:13Penalty
2nd 4:49Penalty
2nd 4:49Penalty
2nd 4:49Penalty
2nd 11:25Penalty
2nd 11:25Penalty
2nd 18:41Anthony Richard (1–0)low · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 1:53Penalty
3rd 2:05Zayde Wisdom (2–0)4v5 · grade A · 9 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 2:50Alex Limoges (2–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 3:42Penalty
3rd 4:38Penalty
3rd 6:34Zayde Wisdom (3–1)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 10:04Penalty
3rd 16:03Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty
3rd 19:44Penalty