Charlotte Checkers at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Charlotte Checkers

5:1

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

CLTPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.42.7
High danger: 44
Chances: 1012
Shots: 2928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal28

10Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances4

2.38Expected goals2.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	4–5	2–2	0.8–1.1
2nd	9–11	2–5	1–2	0.6–1.1
3rd	12–8	4–2	1–0	1.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	3	1:23 of the 3rd	18:37	18:37	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -2.62

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.68
GSAx: +1.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:11Penalty
1st 3:11Penalty
1st 3:11Penalty
1st 3:11Penalty
1st 3:33Penalty
1st 3:45John Leonard (1–0)4v5 · low · 27 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 4:22Justin Sourdif (2–0)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 8:17Oliver Wahlstrom (2–1)high · rebound · 6 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 17:13Penalty
2nd 5:44Michael Benning (3–1)low · 40 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 1:23Ben Steeves (4–1)low · 24 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 6:47Penalty
3rd 6:47Penalty
3rd 9:52Penalty
3rd 13:00Penalty
3rd 17:48C.J. Smith (5–1)empty net · low · 145 ft · beat Michael DiPietro