Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

6:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 2.42.4
High danger: 51
Chances: 86
Shots: 1931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances1

2.35Expected goals2.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–6	3–3	1–0	0.6–0.6
2nd	8–12	2–2	1–1	0.8–1.0
3rd	5–13	3–1	3–0	1.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: +1.35

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 13
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: -3.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:09Joey Anderson (1–0)high · 11 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 14:31Penalty
1st 19:04Joey Anderson (2–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 0:44Penalty
2nd 1:02Joey Anderson (3–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 6:26Penalty
2nd 9:27Penalty
2nd 14:22Marc Del Gaizo (3–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 16:50Samuel Savoie (4–1)low · 34 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 6:48Penalty
3rd 10:13Penalty
3rd 10:13Penalty
3rd 11:18Penalty
3rd 12:45Penalty
3rd 16:03Brett Seney (5–1)empty net · low · 64 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 16:58Aidan Thompson (6–1)low · 45 ft · beat Matthew Murray