AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, May 4

Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears
2:4
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
59%41%
xG
2.52.1
High danger
33
Chances
96
Shots
3226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal26
9Scoring chances6
3High-danger chances3
2.47Expected goals2.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–51–20–10.3–0.5
2nd17–124–21–21.3–0.9
3rd8–94–22–00.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER214:09 of the 3rd5:515:51+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
2.08
GSAx
-1.92
Parker Gahagen
Shots faced
17
Saves
15
Allowed
2
xGA
0.99
GSAx
-1.01
Cal Petersen
Shots faced
15
Saves
15
Allowed
0
xGA
1.48
GSAx
+1.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:53Penalty
  • 1st 6:42Penalty
  • 1st 11:04Penalty
  • 1st 11:23Jacob Gaucher (0–1)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 16:08Penalty
  • 1st 16:08Penalty
  • 1st 18:55Penalty
  • 2nd 3:03Andrew Perrott (1–1)low · 58 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
  • 2nd 4:27Ivan Miroshnichenko (2–1)low · 45 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
  • 2nd 13:00Penalty
  • 2nd 13:09Garrett Wilson (2–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 15:51Nikita Grebenkin (2–3)low · 28 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 16:01Penalty
  • 2nd 19:30Penalty
  • 2nd 19:30Penalty
  • 2nd 19:30Penalty
  • 3rd 2:25Penalty
  • 3rd 3:09Penalty
  • 3rd 3:09Penalty
  • 3rd 6:15Penalty
  • 3rd 14:09Olle Lycksell (2–4)low · 41 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 14:35Penalty
  • 3rd 16:07Penalty