Providence Bruins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Providence Bruins

3:2

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

PROCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.23.1
High danger: 33
Chances: 1011
Shots: 1940

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal40

10Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances3

2.17Expected goals3.09

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–15	6–5	2–2	1.2–1.3
2nd	9–13	3–4	1–0	0.8–1.0
3rd	1–12	1–2	0–1	0.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.09
GSAx: +1.09

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: -0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:14Will Lockwood (0–1)low · 32 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 11:07Penalty
1st 12:54Riley Tufte (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 25 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 14:54Penalty
1st 15:04Rasmus Asplund (1–2)5v4 · high · 37 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 17:40Penalty
2nd 2:58Penalty
2nd 2:58Penalty
2nd 5:41Penalty
2nd 7:42Riley Tufte (2–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 13:59Penalty
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 4:44Tyler Pitlick (3–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 10:14Penalty