Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

6:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 2.82.3
High danger: 21
Chances: 96
Shots: 3427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal27

9Scoring chances6

2High-danger chances1

2.83Expected goals2.29

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–10	3–3	0–0	1.1–0.7
2nd	12–6	4–1	2–1	1.3–0.7
3rd	7–11	2–2	0–0	0.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.29
GSAx: +0.29

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: -2.66

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 6
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.49
GSAx: -0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:28Penalty
1st 9:19Penalty
1st 10:02Grigori Denisenko (1–0)5v4 · medium · 13 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 10:55Penalty
1st 15:20Kieffer Bellows (2–0)low · 27 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 18:32Spencer Stastney (3–0)low · 41 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 19:45Penalty
1st 19:45Penalty
2nd 1:18Kieffer Bellows (4–0)low · 58 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 8:07Penalty
2nd 11:20Penalty
2nd 11:20Penalty
2nd 11:20Penalty
2nd 11:20Penalty
2nd 11:20Penalty
2nd 14:25Joakim Kemell (5–0)high · 3 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 18:30Penalty
2nd 19:40Zach Sanford (5–1)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 1:55Samuel Savoie (5–2)low · 28 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 12:30Penalty
3rd 12:30Penalty
3rd 12:30Penalty
3rd 12:30Penalty
3rd 17:31Kieffer Bellows (6–2)medium · 34 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 18:12Penalty
3rd 18:12Penalty
3rd 18:12Penalty
3rd 18:12Penalty