Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

3:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 2.22.2
High danger: 44
Chances: 87
Shots: 2625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances4

2.21Expected goals2.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	2–5	1–3	0.7–1.1
2nd	12–3	5–0	2–0	1.2–0.1
3rd	4–11	1–2	1–1	0.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.21
GSAx: -0.79

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:11Penalty
1st 1:11Penalty
1st 7:54Turner Ottenbreit (1–0)low · rebound · 60 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 8:02Jackson Cates (1–1)high · 19 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 11:31Penalty
1st 13:02Penalty
1st 14:51Penalty
1st 18:45Aidan Thompson (1–2)low · 19 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 0:56Penalty
2nd 7:50Kyle Marino (2–2)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 13:45Penalty
2nd 14:27Ozzy Wiesblatt (3–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 6:21Penalty
3rd 19:58Penalty
3rd 19:58Penalty