Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:5

Final / OT

Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.14.0
High danger: 32
Chances: 1310
Shots: 4049

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal49

13Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances2

3.11Expected goals4.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	4–2	0–1	0.7–0.9
2nd	14–9	6–2	1–0	1.2–0.9
3rd	4–15	0–6	0–1	0.2–1.6
OT	8–9	2–0	1–0	0.6–0.3
SO	6–8	1–0	1–0	0.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	3:52	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 49
Saves: 44
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.03
GSAx: -0.97

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: -2.11

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 18
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.21
GSAx: +1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:36Kole Lind (0–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 9:07Penalty
1st 9:07Penalty
1st 11:44Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (1–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 12:26Penalty
2nd 0:48Nate Danielson (2–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 11:47Dominik Shine (3–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 16:24Amadeus Lombardi (4–1)high · 16 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 18:51Penalty
3rd 0:58Penalty
3rd 0:58Penalty
3rd 0:58Penalty
3rd 0:58Penalty
3rd 3:52Matěj Blümel (4–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 12:03Cameron Hughes (4–3)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 14:15Trey Taylor (4–4)medium · 19 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 14:45Penalty
SO 10:46Cameron Hughes (4–5)low · 25 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa