AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, May 11

Providence Bruins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Providence Bruins
2:5
Final
Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

PROCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
14%86%
xG
0.82.4
High danger
14
Chances
48
Shots
830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLT above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

8Shots on goal30
4Scoring chances8
1High-danger chances4
0.82Expected goals2.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st1–140–20–10.1–1.0
2nd3–82–30–10.3–0.7
3rd4–82–31–20.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO33:18 of the 3rd16:4211:34+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
2.41
GSAx
-2.59
Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
8
Saves
6
Allowed
2
xGA
0.82
GSAx
-1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:44Penalty
  • 1st 2:44Penalty
  • 1st 7:18Tobias Björnfot (0–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 1st 8:52Penalty
  • 1st 11:45Penalty
  • 1st 15:00Penalty
  • 1st 16:25Penalty
  • 2nd 1:21Penalty
  • 2nd 8:38Wilmer Skoog (0–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 10:21Penalty
  • 2nd 10:21Penalty
  • 2nd 10:21Penalty
  • 2nd 15:13Penalty
  • 2nd 15:13Penalty
  • 2nd 17:22Penalty
  • 2nd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 3:18Oliver Okuliar (0–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 7:58Vinni Lettieri (1–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 15:05Penalty
  • 3rd 15:59Vinni Lettieri (2–3)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 18:52Tobias Björnfot (2–4)empty net · low · 85 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 19:37Will Lockwood (2–5)empty net · low · 81 ft · beat Brandon Bussi