Laval Rocket at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Laval Rocket

5:4

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

LAVROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.82.1
High danger: 103
Chances: 137
Shots: 3427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal27

13Scoring chances7

10High-danger chances3

3.83Expected goals2.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–12	5–1	4–0	1.6–0.7
2nd	11–6	6–4	4–2	1.4–0.8
3rd	8–9	2–2	2–1	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.83
GSAx: -1.17

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: -1.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:09Penalty
1st 3:59Penalty
1st 4:33Kale Clague (0–1)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 9:15Penalty
1st 10:04Logan Mailloux (1–1)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 13:30Penalty
1st 18:19David Reinbacher (2–1)high · rebound · 26 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 18:57Penalty
1st 18:57Penalty
2nd 2:23Konsta Helenius (2–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 6:48Josh Dunne (2–3)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 9:25Penalty
2nd 13:03Penalty
2nd 14:26Brandon Gignac (3–3)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 19:18Alex Barré-Boulet (4–3)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 4:09Penalty
3rd 11:18Isak Rosén (4–4)low · 27 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 15:22Goal (5–4)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Devon Levi