Milwaukee Admirals at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Milwaukee Admirals

2:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MILTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.63.8
High danger: 38
Chances: 515
Shots: 2528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal28

5Scoring chances15

3High-danger chances8

1.65Expected goals3.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–16	2–10	1–4	0.5–2.3
2nd	7–6	2–3	1–3	0.6–0.9
3rd	9–6	1–2	1–1	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	5:14 of the 3rd	14:46	12:24	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.75
GSAx: -0.25

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.65
GSAx: -0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:10Matthew Seminoff (0–1)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 8:10Penalty
1st 8:16Cal O’Reilly (1–1)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 9:59Penalty
1st 14:35Penalty
1st 14:55Penalty
1st 16:33Penalty
1st 19:56Justin Hryckowian (1–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 3:37Penalty
2nd 4:07Justin Hryckowian (1–3)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 10:55Penalty
3rd 5:14Matěj Blümel (1–4)high · 19 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 9:47Mark Friedman (2–4)low · 50 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg