Rochester Americans at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Rochester Americans

1:4

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

ROCLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

72%28%

xG: 3.22.0
High danger: 53
Chances: 127
Shots: 3320

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal20

12Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances3

3.19Expected goals1.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–2	2–0	0.7–0.6
2nd	13–8	6–3	1–1	1.3–0.9
3rd	13–5	4–2	2–2	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	3	10:11 of the 3rd	9:49	9:49	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +2.19

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.99
GSAx: -2.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:15Luke Tuch (0–1)medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 2:54Penalty
1st 7:31Penalty
2nd 2:42Penalty
2nd 15:55Penalty
2nd 15:55Penalty
2nd 19:26Penalty
3rd 2:46Lukáš Rousek (1–1)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 4:57Florian Xhekaj (1–2)low · backhand · 16 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 6:02Laurent Dauphin (1–3)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 10:11Joshua Roy (1–4)high · backhand · 14 ft · beat Devon Levi