Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars

3:2

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 2.71.8
High danger: 41
Chances: 95
Shots: 3024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal24

9Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances1

2.70Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	3–3	0–1	0.6–0.7
2nd	12–9	3–2	2–0	1.0–0.9
3rd	10–7	3–0	2–0	1.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: -0.30

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: -0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:33Curtis McKenzie (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 8:01Penalty
1st 9:55Chase De Leo (1–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 12:44Penalty
1st 19:40Penalty
2nd 6:07Penalty
2nd 12:05Fedor Svechkov (1–2)low · 33 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 18:11Penalty
3rd 1:44Matěj Blümel (2–2)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 14:55Justin Hryckowian (3–2)low · 16 ft · beat Matthew Murray