Charlotte Checkers at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Charlotte Checkers

5:2

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

CLTLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 2.61.6
High danger: 50
Chances: 95
Shots: 3025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances5

5High-danger chances0

2.55Expected goals1.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	2–1	1–0	0.7–0.4
2nd	11–7	4–2	3–0	1.2–0.6
3rd	9–11	3–2	1–0	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.59
GSAx: -0.41

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.61
GSAx: -2.39

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.94
GSAx: -0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:49Penalty
1st 7:49Penalty
1st 11:50Penalty
1st 11:50Penalty
1st 11:50Penalty
1st 14:24Penalty
1st 17:32Trevor Carrick (1–0)5v4 · low · wrist · 55 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 4:14Penalty
2nd 5:11John Leonard (2–0)4v5 · medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 7:02Penalty
2nd 14:21Michael Benning (3–0)low · wrist · 17 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 15:05Will Lockwood (4–0)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 15:48Penalty
2nd 15:48Penalty
2nd 18:21Penalty
2nd 18:21Penalty
2nd 18:21Penalty
3rd 2:25Penalty
3rd 6:00Noel Hoefenmayer (4–1)low · slap · 58 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 8:17Penalty
3rd 12:05Riley Bezeau (5–1)high · wrist · 28 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 16:35Penalty
3rd 16:35Penalty
3rd 17:31Penalty
3rd 18:25Penalty
3rd 19:00David Reinbacher (5–2)5v4 · low · slap · 40 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen