Texas Stars at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Texas Stars

2:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TEXABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.93.1
High danger: 34
Chances: 69
Shots: 2540

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal40

6Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances4

1.87Expected goals3.15

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	1–2	1–0	0.7–0.6
2nd	11–13	3–3	1–2	0.8–1.3
3rd	4–17	2–4	1–2	0.4–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: +0.14

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:26Penalty
1st 10:31Penalty
1st 13:42Penalty
1st 18:35Matěj Blümel (1–0)low · 10 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 13:05Harrison Scott (2–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 16:44Penalty
2nd 16:44Penalty
2nd 18:52Arshdeep Bains (2–1)low · 16 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 1:52Jujhar Khaira (2–2)low · 38 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 11:50Max Sasson (2–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 19:25Arshdeep Bains (2–4)empty net · low · 96 ft