Toronto Marlies7:05 PM
Friday, October 2
Rochester AmericansBefore puck drop
59%41%
Projected from each club’s goal differential to date, shrunk toward league average so an early hot start does not read as dominance, plus home ice. Once the puck drops this becomes the live win probability, with deserve-to-win marked across it.
Season to date
Toronto Marlies362610
82 points in 72 games
15–21 on the road
Rochester Americans313110
72 points in 72 games
15–21 at home
Neither club has played yet this season, so everything here is how 2025-26 finished.
What they create
3.18Goals per game2.97
2.50Expected goals per game2.69
4.0High-danger chances per game4.1
26.0Shots per game29.2
What they allow
3.17Goals against per game3.26
2.71Expected goals against per game2.71
4.1High-danger chances against per game4.4
29.0Shots against per game28.9
The shorter bar is the better defence here. Every row is what the club concedes, so these read the opposite way to the panel beside them.
Previous meetings
Where
Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY
The shot map, the expected-goals race and the period splits all fill in as this game is played.