Rochester Americans3:00 PM
Sunday, October 4
Belleville SenatorsBefore puck drop
43%57%
Projected from each club’s goal differential to date, shrunk toward league average so an early hot start does not read as dominance, plus home ice. Once the puck drops this becomes the live win probability, with deserve-to-win marked across it.
Season to date
Rochester Americans313110
72 points in 72 games
16–20 on the road
Belleville Senators28359
65 points in 72 games
13–23 at home
Neither club has played yet this season, so everything here is how 2025-26 finished.
What they create
2.97Goals per game3.10
2.69Expected goals per game2.58
4.1High-danger chances per game3.8
29.2Shots per game26.1
What they allow
3.26Goals against per game3.64
2.71Expected goals against per game2.98
4.4High-danger chances against per game4.3
28.9Shots against per game30.5
The shorter bar is the better defence here. Every row is what the club concedes, so these read the opposite way to the panel beside them.
Previous meetings
Where
CAA Arena, Belleville, ON
The shot map, the expected-goals race and the period splits all fill in as this game is played.