Toronto Marlies at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Toronto Marlies

4:00 PM

Saturday, October 17

Belleville Senators

Before puck drop

Win probabilityprojected

54%46%

Projected from each club’s goal differential to date, shrunk toward league average so an early hot start does not read as dominance, plus home ice. Once the puck drops this becomes the live win probability, with deserve-to-win marked across it.

Season to date

Toronto Marlies

362610

82 points in 72 games

15–21 on the road

Belleville Senators

28359

65 points in 72 games

13–23 at home

Neither club has played yet this season, so everything here is how 2025-26 finished.

What they create

3.18Goals per game3.10

2.50Expected goals per game2.58

4.0High-danger chances per game3.8

26.0Shots per game26.1

What they allow

3.17Goals against per game3.64

2.71Expected goals against per game2.98

4.1High-danger chances against per game4.3

29.0Shots against per game30.5

The shorter bar is the better defence here. Every row is what the club concedes, so these read the opposite way to the panel beside them.

Previous meetings

Where

CAA Arena, Belleville, ON

The shot map, the expected-goals race and the period splits all fill in as this game is played.