Belleville Senators4:00 PM
Sunday, October 18
Toronto MarliesBefore puck drop
41%59%
Projected from each club’s goal differential to date, shrunk toward league average so an early hot start does not read as dominance, plus home ice. Once the puck drops this becomes the live win probability, with deserve-to-win marked across it.
Season to date
Belleville Senators28359
65 points in 72 games
15–21 on the road
Toronto Marlies362610
82 points in 72 games
21–15 at home
Neither club has played yet this season, so everything here is how 2025-26 finished.
What they create
3.10Goals per game3.18
2.58Expected goals per game2.50
3.8High-danger chances per game4.0
26.1Shots per game26.0
What they allow
3.64Goals against per game3.17
2.98Expected goals against per game2.71
4.3High-danger chances against per game4.1
30.5Shots against per game29.0
The shorter bar is the better defence here. Every row is what the club concedes, so these read the opposite way to the panel beside them.
Previous meetings
Where
Coca-Cola Coliseum, Toronto, ON
The shot map, the expected-goals race and the period splits all fill in as this game is played.