Hershey Bears7:05 PM
Wednesday, October 28
Rochester AmericansBefore puck drop
57%43%
Projected from each club’s goal differential to date, shrunk toward league average so an early hot start does not read as dominance, plus home ice. Once the puck drops this becomes the live win probability, with deserve-to-win marked across it.
Season to date
Hershey Bears32319
73 points in 72 games
18–18 on the road
Rochester Americans313110
72 points in 72 games
15–21 at home
Neither club has played yet this season, so everything here is how 2025-26 finished.
What they create
2.92Goals per game2.97
2.55Expected goals per game2.69
4.0High-danger chances per game4.1
26.5Shots per game29.2
What they allow
3.19Goals against per game3.26
2.88Expected goals against per game2.71
4.3High-danger chances against per game4.4
30.2Shots against per game28.9
The shorter bar is the better defence here. Every row is what the club concedes, so these read the opposite way to the panel beside them.
Previous meetings
Where
Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY
The shot map, the expected-goals race and the period splits all fill in as this game is played.