Grand Rapids Griffins at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:3

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

GRCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 3.02.2
High danger: 34
Chances: 119
Shots: 3521

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal21

11Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances4

3.02Expected goals2.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	4–2	1–1	0.8–0.6
2nd	8–4	1–1	0–0	0.5–0.3
3rd	18–9	6–6	2–3	1.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.02
GSAx: +1.02

Michal Postava

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: -0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:44Penalty
1st 8:17Penalty
1st 9:20Penalty
2nd 2:16Penalty
2nd 13:16Penalty
2nd 15:31Penalty
2nd 18:00Noah Philp (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 4:02Noah Philp (0–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 4:08Penalty
3rd 4:18Penalty
3rd 4:18Penalty
3rd 5:12Penalty
3rd 16:04Justin Robidas (0–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Michal Postava
3rd 17:13Eduards Tralmaks (1–3)high · 11 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 19:45Sheldon Dries (2–3)low · 56 ft · beat Cayden Primeau