Chicago Wolves at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Chicago Wolves

3:2

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CHICOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.53.6
High danger: 57
Chances: 917
Shots: 1937

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal37

9Scoring chances17

5High-danger chances7

2.48Expected goals3.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–15	3–6	2–4	1.1–1.4
2nd	9–13	4–10	2–3	1.0–1.7
3rd	2–9	2–1	1–0	0.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.61
GSAx: +1.61

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.48
GSAx: -0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:43Penalty
1st 5:39Justin Robidas (1–0)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 10:06Penalty
1st 10:51Penalty
1st 16:33Penalty
1st 17:38Alex Barré-Boulet (1–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 18:30Penalty
1st 19:49Penalty
2nd 0:33Tristen Nielsen (1–2)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 5:30Penalty
2nd 7:12Bradly Nadeau (2–2)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 12:54Noel Gunler (3–2)5v4 · medium · 7 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 14:25Penalty
2nd 14:25Penalty
2nd 17:28Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 7:03Penalty
3rd 12:46Penalty