Chicago Wolves at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Chicago Wolves

2:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CHICOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 1.42.9
High danger: 47
Chances: 511
Shots: 1530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances7

1.42Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–9	1–3	1–2	0.3–0.9
2nd	11–8	4–2	3–1	1.0–0.6
3rd	1–13	0–6	0–4	0.1–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -2.11

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 13
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.42
GSAx: -0.58

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:09Penalty
1st 17:06Penalty
1st 18:15Tristen Nielsen (0–1)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 19:52Penalty
2nd 2:07Joel Nyström (1–1)high · 8 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 3:17Penalty
2nd 6:06Ivan Ryabkin (2–1)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 13:11Penalty
2nd 13:11Penalty
2nd 14:35Penalty
3rd 15:00Jacob MacDonald (2–2)high · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 15:06Penalty
3rd 15:52T.J. Hughes (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 27 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 18:50Jason Polin (2–4)empty net · low · 91 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 19:44Ivan Ivan (2–5)empty net · low · 88 ft · beat Cayden Primeau