Chicago Wolves at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Chicago Wolves

4:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CHICOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.73.3
High danger: 37
Chances: 1111
Shots: 2942

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal42

11Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances7

2.74Expected goals3.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–11	4–2	1–2	1.2–0.7
2nd	9–12	3–4	1–0	0.8–1.0
3rd	5–19	4–5	1–5	0.7–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:50 of the 3rd	7:10	7:10	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 39
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.33
GSAx: +0.33

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: -1.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:02Penalty
1st 7:11Penalty
1st 19:08Penalty
1st 19:45Noah Philp (1–0)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 1:07Bradly Nadeau (2–0)high · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 1:47Wyatt Aamodt (2–1)low · 44 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 9:34Penalty
3rd 0:14Jason Polin (2–2)high · 5 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 3:46Ryan Suzuki (3–2)low · 37 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 12:50Ivan Ryabkin (4–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 18:50Jayson Megna (4–3)high · 11 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov