AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, December 19

Manitoba Moose at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Manitoba Moose
3:6
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MBCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
28%72%
xG
1.62.5
High danger
23
Chances
69
Shots
2128

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal28
6Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances3
1.63Expected goals2.47

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–81–20–10.7–0.7
2nd5–123–41–00.5–0.9
3rd5–82–31–20.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB213:24 of the 3rd6:366:36+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oskari Salminen
Shots faced
28
Saves
22
Allowed
6
xGA
2.47
GSAx
-3.53
Antti Raanta
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
1.62
GSAx
-1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:59Penalty
  • 1st 1:59Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 10:42Penalty
  • 1st 16:09Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–0)low · 55 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 1st 17:34Nicholas Jones (2–0)low · 49 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 2nd 0:47Nathan Sucese (2–1)low · 49 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 2nd 1:59Penalty
  • 2nd 3:23Nathan Sucese (2–2)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 2nd 5:37Penalty
  • 2nd 8:21Penalty
  • 2nd 8:39Parker Ford (3–2)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Antti Raanta
  • 2nd 13:13Chris Terry (3–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 2nd 15:29Penalty
  • 2nd 15:29Penalty
  • 3rd 5:48Penalty
  • 3rd 7:25Rocco Grimaldi (3–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 3rd 13:24Tyson Feist (3–5)low · 56 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 3rd 14:48Penalty
  • 3rd 18:03Penalty
  • 3rd 19:31Nathan Sucese (3–6)empty net · low · 64 ft · beat Oskari Salminen