AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 15

Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms
3:4
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

LVSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
3.52.0
High danger
53
Chances
128
Shots
3527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal27
12Scoring chances8
5High-danger chances3
3.47Expected goals2.03

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–81–21–11.0–0.7
2nd13–96–32–11.3–0.7
3rd11–105–32–11.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LV−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LV212:09 of the 3rd7:515:02+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.47
GSAx
+0.47
Cal Petersen
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.03
GSAx
-1.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:10Penalty
  • 1st 2:10Penalty
  • 1st 7:18Penalty
  • 1st 10:44Penalty
  • 1st 10:44Penalty
  • 1st 10:56Penalty
  • 1st 13:28Elliot Desnoyers (1–0)low · 18 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 1:48Nikita Alexandrov (1–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 11:52Penalty
  • 2nd 13:05Penalty
  • 2nd 17:42Marcus Sylvegard (1–2)low · 30 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 19:24Samu Tuomaala (2–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 1:04Penalty
  • 3rd 3:27Tyler Tucker (2–3)high · 7 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 3rd 10:00Marcus Sylvegard (2–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 3rd 10:32Penalty
  • 3rd 14:07Olle Lycksell (3–4)low · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis