Coachella Valley Firebirds at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:1

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.11.9
High danger: 42
Chances: 109
Shots: 3321

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal21

10Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances2

3.12Expected goals1.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	2–3	0–1	0.7–0.5
2nd	11–8	5–4	2–1	1.2–0.9
3rd	12–7	3–2	2–0	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: -0.88

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: +0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:29Penalty
1st 11:51Penalty
1st 16:05Guillaume Brisebois (0–1)low · 65 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 18:27Jani Nyman (1–1)low · 20 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 4:20Penalty
2nd 10:24Penalty
2nd 11:46Penalty
3rd 1:57Max Lajoie (2–1)low · 32 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 7:34Penalty
3rd 18:57Max McCormick (3–1)empty net · low · 131 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 19:30Ryan Winterton (4–1)empty net · grade A · 11 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo