Rockford IceHogs at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Rockford IceHogs

1:2

Final / OT

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

RFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 3.02.1
High danger: 50
Chances: 108
Shots: 3428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal28

10Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances0

2.98Expected goals2.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	2–3	1–0	0.8–0.6
2nd	16–6	4–1	1–0	1.3–0.3
3rd	7–11	3–4	2–0	0.6–0.8
OT	2–4	1–0	1–0	0.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: +1.98

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.07
GSAx: +0.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 19:36Penalty
2nd 2:59Cole Guttman (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 4:50Penalty
3rd 2:58Tyler Tucker (1–1)low · rebound · 57 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 11:41Penalty
OT 3:42Dalibor Dvorský (1–2)low · 30 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks