Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

4:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

WBSLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.72.8
High danger: 63
Chances: 1611
Shots: 2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34

16Scoring chances11

6High-danger chances3

3.72Expected goals2.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–14	7–4	2–1	1.5–1.2
2nd	12–9	8–2	3–1	1.6–0.7
3rd	4–11	1–5	1–1	0.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: -0.19

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.72
GSAx: -0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:30Penalty
1st 6:46Avery Hayes (1–0)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
1st 16:03Sam Poulin (2–0)medium · 32 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
1st 18:27Penalty
1st 18:27Penalty
1st 18:28Penalty
1st 18:28Penalty
1st 18:28Penalty
1st 18:28Penalty
2nd 8:47Tristan Broz (3–0)medium · tip · 14 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 19:02J.R. Avon (3–1)high · wrist · rebound · 36 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 19:30Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 1:10Rodrigo Abols (3–2)4v5 · medium · 22 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 5:40Filip Král (4–2)low · slap · 60 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 6:28Helge Grans (4–3)low · wrist · 43 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 13:26Penalty