AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 8

Belleville Senators at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Belleville Senators
3:8
Final
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

BELWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
2.72.1
High danger
33
Chances
129
Shots
3523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
WBS above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal23
12Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances3
2.70Expected goals2.11

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–97–51–11.6–1.0
2nd6–91–10–10.2–0.5
3rd12–54–32–11.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−3−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL30:00 of the 3rd20:0019:48+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
2.70
GSAx
-0.30
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
14
Saves
10
Allowed
4
xGA
1.36
GSAx
-2.64
Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
9
Saves
5
Allowed
4
xGA
0.75
GSAx
-3.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:52Penalty
  • 1st 6:37Rutger McGroarty (0–1)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 11:18Penalty
  • 1st 11:18Penalty
  • 1st 17:28Vasily Ponomarev (0–2)high · 12 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 18:45Angus Crookshank (1–2)low · 54 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 2nd 1:39Penalty
  • 2nd 3:44Ville Koivunen (1–3)low · 165 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 5:09Zack MacEwen (2–3)low · 143 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 2nd 5:42Penalty
  • 2nd 8:09Tristan Broz (2–4)high · 155 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 10:13Nikolai Knyzhov (2–5)low · 137 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 1:14Zack MacEwen (3–5)low · 34 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 3rd 1:26Sam Poulin (3–6)high · 15 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 3:10Sam Poulin (3–7)low · 16 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 3:39Penalty
  • 3rd 11:33Penalty
  • 3rd 14:08Penalty
  • 3rd 19:54Sam Poulin (3–8)medium · 11 ft · beat Malcolm Subban