Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

4:2

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.53.1
High danger: 17
Chances: 513
Shots: 2529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal29

5Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances7

1.53Expected goals3.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–8	0–3	0–2	0.3–0.9
2nd	5–8	1–6	0–3	0.2–1.0
3rd	15–13	4–4	1–2	1.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: +1.12

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.53
GSAx: -2.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:22Mathieu De St. Phalle (0–1)low · snap · 11 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 7:58Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 15:37Penalty
2nd 0:11Penalty
2nd 0:16Tristan Broz (0–2)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 0:15Garrett Roe (1–2)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 1:05Penalty
3rd 2:05Henrik Rybinski (2–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 53 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 11:49Penalty
3rd 16:00Mike Vecchione (3–2)low · tip · 9 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 18:13Luke Philp (4–2)empty net · low · wrist · 81 ft · beat Sergei Murashov