Springfield Thunderbirds at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

SPRWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

11%89%

xG: 1.65.5
High danger: 312
Chances: 519
Shots: 2344

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal44

5Scoring chances19

3High-danger chances12

1.64Expected goals5.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–15	4–7	2–3	0.7–1.8
2nd	7–18	0–10	0–8	0.4–2.9
3rd	10–11	1–2	1–1	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 40
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.53
GSAx: +1.53

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: +0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:45Jacob Hudson (1–0)medium · wrist · 23 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 7:41Penalty
1st 13:32Tristan Broz (1–1)medium · tip · 20 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 13:52Nolan Renwick (1–2)high · tip · rebound · 11 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 7:44Penalty
2nd 14:38Penalty
2nd 16:44Atley Calvert (1–3)grade A · tip · rebound · 11 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 17:03Penalty
3rd 9:31Penalty
3rd 18:29Emil Bemström (1–4)empty net · low · backhand · 50 ft · beat Colten Ellis