Springfield Thunderbirds at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

7:05 PM

Friday, February 12

Rochester Americans

Before puck drop

Win probabilityprojected

55%45%

Projected from each club’s goal differential to date, shrunk toward league average so an early hot start does not read as dominance, plus home ice. Once the puck drops this becomes the live win probability, with deserve-to-win marked across it.

Season to date

Springfield Thunderbirds

32328

72 points in 72 games

14–22 on the road

Rochester Americans

313110

72 points in 72 games

15–21 at home

Neither club has played yet this season, so everything here is how 2025-26 finished.

What they create

2.88Goals per game2.97

2.53Expected goals per game2.69

3.8High-danger chances per game4.1

26.4Shots per game29.2

What they allow

3.33Goals against per game3.26

3.03Expected goals against per game2.71

4.7High-danger chances against per game4.4

31.2Shots against per game28.9

The shorter bar is the better defence here. Every row is what the club concedes, so these read the opposite way to the panel beside them.

Previous meetings

Where

Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, NY

The shot map, the expected-goals race and the period splits all fill in as this game is played.