Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

9:40 PM

Wednesday, March 24

Bakersfield Condors

Before puck drop

Win probabilityprojected

43%57%

Projected from each club’s goal differential to date, shrunk toward league average so an early hot start does not read as dominance, plus home ice. Once the puck drops this becomes the live win probability, with deserve-to-win marked across it.

Season to date

Tucson Roadrunners

342810

78 points in 72 games

18–18 on the road

Bakersfield Condors

372312

86 points in 72 games

25–11 at home

Neither club has played yet this season, so everything here is how 2025-26 finished.

What they create

3.19Goals per game3.39

2.80Expected goals per game2.80

4.3High-danger chances per game4.7

28.5Shots per game27.7

What they allow

3.32Goals against per game3.28

2.90Expected goals against per game3.15

4.7High-danger chances against per game5.0

28.8Shots against per game30.8

The shorter bar is the better defence here. Every row is what the club concedes, so these read the opposite way to the panel beside them.

Previous meetings

Where

Dignity Health Arena, Bakersfield, CA

The shot map, the expected-goals race and the period splits all fill in as this game is played.