Springfield Thunderbirds at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:8

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

SPRWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 1.73.6
High danger: 08
Chances: 514
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

5Scoring chances14

0High-danger chances8

1.71Expected goals3.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	1–6	0–3	0.4–1.3
2nd	10–11	4–4	0–2	0.8–1.3
3rd	10–6	0–4	0–3	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: +0.71

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 13
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: -1.65

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 8
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.29
GSAx: -2.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:56Tristan Broz (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 7:43Harrison Brunicke (0–2)low · 31 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 14:49Penalty
1st 16:17Tristan Broz (0–3)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 19:39Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (0–4)high · 10 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 17:21Atley Calvert (0–5)grade A · 15 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 2:23Penalty
3rd 2:52Ville Koivunen (0–6)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 4:30Akil Thomas (1–6)low · 51 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 5:05Penalty
3rd 8:23Penalty
3rd 8:23Penalty
3rd 8:43Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (1–7)empty net · low · 154 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 10:42Ville Koivunen (1–8)grade A · 10 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 15:50Penalty
3rd 15:50Penalty
3rd 15:50Penalty