Toronto Marlies at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Toronto Marlies

3:2

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

TORCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 26
Chances: 713
Shots: 2424

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal24

7Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances6

2.06Expected goals2.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–8	3–6	1–3	0.9–1.0
2nd	5–8	0–5	0–2	0.3–0.9
3rd	7–8	4–2	1–1	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	19:48 of the 3rd	0:12	0:12	+0.003 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: +0.58

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: -0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:03Penalty
1st 6:31Zach Aston-Reese (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 10:09Penalty
1st 12:56Vinni Lettieri (1–1)low · 21 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 13:23Penalty
2nd 15:03Hudson Fasching (1–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 6:33Penalty
3rd 9:40Penalty
3rd 15:30Logan Shaw (2–2)low · 36 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 19:48Easton Cowan (3–2)medium · 5 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko