Toronto Marlies at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Toronto Marlies

4:2

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TORCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

61%39%

xG: 2.32.2
High danger: 53
Chances: 96
Shots: 2528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances3

2.35Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	4–3	3–2	1.3–1.1
2nd	8–6	3–2	1–1	0.6–0.5
3rd	6–11	2–1	1–0	0.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +0.24

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: -1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:00Penalty
1st 4:00Penalty
1st 4:00Penalty
1st 7:16Penalty
1st 11:24Bradly Nadeau (0–1)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 17:45Goal (1–1)low · 62 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 3:45Penalty
2nd 14:13Skyler Brind’Amour (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 15:43Penalty
2nd 19:10Cédric Paré (2–2)high · 17 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 1:43Penalty
3rd 11:32Vinni Lettieri (3–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 14:28Penalty
3rd 19:51Vinni Lettieri (4–2)empty net · low · 41 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov