Toronto Marlies at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Toronto Marlies

4:2

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

TORWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.13.0
High danger: 24
Chances: 412
Shots: 1636

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal36

4Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances4

1.14Expected goals2.98

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–13	1–3	0–0	0.4–0.8
2nd	5–12	2–6	1–2	0.4–1.2
3rd	6–11	1–3	1–2	0.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	18:24 of the 3rd	1:36	1:36	+0.038 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: +0.98

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 12
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.14
GSAx: -2.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:44Penalty
1st 16:48Alex Alexeyev (0–1)low · wrist · 62 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 1:38Easton Cowan (1–1)medium · wrist · 31 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
2nd 9:05Penalty
2nd 13:31Penalty
2nd 16:45Penalty
2nd 16:56William Villeneuve (2–1)5v4 · low · slap · 60 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 1:10Penalty
3rd 6:01Rutger McGroarty (2–2)high · tip · rebound · 7 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 18:24Michael Pezzetta (3–2)low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 19:12Henry Thrun (4–2)empty net · low · 184 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty