Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

5:3

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

WBSTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 3.44.8
High danger: 78
Chances: 1219
Shots: 3439

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal39

12Scoring chances19

7High-danger chances8

3.37Expected goals4.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–15	4–5	3–1	1.5–1.7
2nd	12–16	5–10	3–4	1.3–2.0
3rd	6–8	3–4	1–3	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.77
GSAx: +1.77

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: -1.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:28Penalty
1st 5:28Penalty
1st 12:15Vinni Lettieri (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
1st 12:55Penalty
1st 14:38Aidan McDonough (1–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 15:20Penalty
1st 15:20Penalty
2nd 2:04Goal (2–1)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 2:31Penalty
2nd 10:06Penalty
2nd 11:58Penalty
2nd 17:36Luke Haymes (2–2)high · 25 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 4:21Penalty
3rd 7:19Penalty
3rd 7:19Penalty
3rd 7:48Ville Koivunen (3–2)medium · 33 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 10:03Atley Calvert (4–2)high · 13 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 19:08Marc Johnstone (4–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 19:24Tanner Howe (5–3)empty net · low · 104 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 19:48Penalty
3rd 19:48Penalty
3rd 19:48Penalty
3rd 19:48Penalty
3rd 19:48Penalty